New Poles of Growth in a Fragmented Global Economy

As the world emerges from a period of pandemic disruption, geopolitical shocks, and persistent inflation, attention is turning to the countries best positioned to lead the next wave of global economic expansion. According to the IMF’s latest projections, the six years from 2025 to 2030 will see a new set of winners, with India, Indonesia, and China spearheading the fastest average GDP growth among major economies. This shift reflects broader realignments in global trade, supply chains, demographics, and technological innovation. What do these growth trends signal about the future world order, and what are the implications for investors, policymakers, and multinational businesses?

Quantitative Overview: The Rankings and Their Context

The IMF forecast (2025–2030) provides a clear quantitative picture of which economies are set to outpace the global average. The leading countries and their projected average annual GDP growth rates are:

India: 6.4%

Indonesia: 4.9%

United Arab Emirates (UAE): 4.4%

China: 3.9%

Saudi Arabia: 3.3%

Singapore: 2.3%

Brazil: 2.2%

Australia: 2.2%

United States: 2.0%

South Korea: 1.7%

South Africa: 1.5%

Russia: 1.2%

Germany: 0.9%

These figures show a strong concentration of growth in emerging Asia and the Middle East, while established economies in Europe, North America, and Russia are projected to grow much more slowly.

Asia’s Surge: India, Indonesia, and China at the Forefront

India is projected to be the global growth engine, averaging a staggering 6.4% annual GDP growth. This outpaces all major economies and cements India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing large market. The country is benefitting from demographic momentum, digital transformation, manufacturing shifts, and government reforms that have made it a key alternative to China in global supply chains.

Indonesia follows as Southeast Asia’s top performer, with average growth of 4.9%. Its large, youthful population, growing middle class, and expanding industrial sector are enabling sustained progress, attracting significant foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing, digital services, and renewable energy.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, is set to slow from its heady double-digit days but will still grow at a healthy 3.9%—well above most advanced economies. China’s rebalancing toward domestic consumption, technological upgrading, and green energy investments are expected to underpin this growth, even as the country navigates demographic headwinds and real estate challenges.